President Donald J. Trump will likely highlight the growing economy of the country and recent trade deals, as well as comment on the situation with Iran and the results of his potentially ongoing trial with the Senate in the State of the Union Address February 4.
The primary focus of the address will likely be economic growth or decline, unemployment, the creation of new jobs, etc. Based on his recent Twitter posts about how the economy is doing well these statistics will likely be presented as fact, with the President mostly highlighting those that are currently doing well (for example, low unemployment rates and the stock market’s growth). However, these facts are also probably going to be presented without certain contextual facts – for example, mentioning the number of jobs created this year, and not that the number of jobs created was actually lower than in previous years.
Another matter that may come up during the State of the Union Address is the recent approval of the United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the Senate Finance Committee, which is currently passing through Congress. Since the trade agreement is mostly bipartisan, there’s a high likelihood that it will process through Congress successfully. The President will probably bring particular attention to this fact, using it as a springboard to assert his successes over the past year, and his years as the President. Since this is an election year, the President is almost certainly going to take the time to assert his successes, and not his weaknesses, due to the fact that the State of the Union will likely be brought up during his 2020 campaign.
The current situation with Iran will almost certainly be on the table. Tensions have been rising between the United States and Iran for months, and with the recent death of one of Iran’s most notable military commanders, war between the two countries may be inevitable. However, don’t count on the President announcing a declaration of war at the State of the Union Address. He will likely comment on the state of affairs with Iran, including his own opinion on the killing of General Soleimani, and justify why the United States may need to go to war, but won’t actually make a declaration.
There’s also the matter of the global climate issue, as well as the recent public concern over the coronavirus. Between the Australian bushfires and global climate awareness, there is more media attention on climate change than ever before, and the coronavirus has many people concerned over their public health, since multiple people have been diagnosed with it in the country. However, I don’t think the President is going to mention these issues during the Address. Between his cavalier ‘fake news’ attitude, the fact that he has already pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, and that he already mentioned that the United States apparently has the coronavirus under control in a CNBC interview, the President likely does not believe in the validity of climate change as a real issue.
The trial is likely going to be one of the major facets of the Address. Personally, I don’t think the trial will have ended by the time the State of the Union is given. I think the President will comment on the ongoing trial, and use the State of the Union as a platform to assert his own innocence over the charges of criminal bribery and wire fraud. I also think the President is going to use the opportunity to comment (most likely negatively) on other members of the United States government – especially people such as Nancy Pelosi, who he is documented to not get along well with.
I think the 2020 State of the Union Address is going to be a controversial subject, especially considering the trial process likely won’t be over by the time the Address is given. This is only the second in history to take place during an active trial, the first being President Clinton’s State of the Union Address in 1999. I think that there will be a noticeable emotional stint to it – the President will likely address the Democratic Party with contempt, as well as Nancy Pelosi, because of the active trial. The President is already a controversial figure, and with the recent events of the past two months, it would not shock me if the State of the Union Address becomes a catalyst for even more political turmoil.
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